A new poll has upset some Republican candidates heading into the final two weeks before the June 16 runoff.
The Alabama Poll recently released data showing Jared Hudson leading in the U.S. Senate race, Katherine Robertson leading in the attorney general race and Wes Allen leading in the lieutenant governor race.
The Alabama Poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary runoff voters on May 28. The methodology combined live telephone interviews and self-administered text-message surveys. Interviews were stratified by area, race and ethnicity, age, gender, and vote history based on prior Republican primary turnout.
Respondents confirmed they were likely to vote in the June 16 Republican primary runoff. The margin of error is listed at 4.0% in either direction with 95% confidence.
In the U.S. Senate runoff, the poll listed former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson as the projected winner over U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), 48.7% to 39.2%, with 12.1% undecided — a significant departure from other polls.
The poll claims Hudson leads across most of the map and most demographics.
For the lieutenant governor runoff, Secretary of State Wes Allen holds a narrow lead on former Alabama Republican Party chairman John Wahl. This lead has been in Wahl's favor in other polls.
According to the Alabama Poll, Allen leads Wahl 41.9% to 38.4%, with an undisclosed number of undecided.
"Runoff electorates are smaller, older, and more loyalist — which is Wahl's coalition, not Allen's," said the Alabama Poll's Michael Lowrey. "This is the most consequential mismatch on the ballot, and my most uncertain call. My call: Lean Wahl."
For attorney general, chief counsel Katherine Robertson leads former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Jay Mitchell 49.1% to 31.2% — a nearly 18-point margin.
"She leads in every media market and every congressional district," Lowrey writes. "Mitchell's competitive turf is narrow, and the persuadable middle is breaking toward Robertson, not splitting evenly. His path is real but requires several things to go right at once. The one variable that changes it is a late, well-funded surge. My call: Robertson wins — my most confident call."
For agricultural commissioner, Corey Hill leads Christina Woerner McInnis 33.1% to 27.3%. Comprising the largest margin in all the runoffs, 39.6% of those polled are still firmly undecided.
Mitchell's campaign was swift to condemn the poll as "bogus."
"This is yet another bogus suppression poll, similar to the one published before the primary that also claimed Jay was trailing by double digits," a release from Mitchell's campaign stated. "Alabama voters proved that wrong. Despite being outspent 2-to-1 in the weeks leading up to the primary, Jay finished only six points away from first place. Since then, he's been endorsed by third-place candidate Pamela Casey, who carried 25% of the vote and commands a powerful grassroots following. Simple math and common sense make it clear—Jay Mitchell's going to win."
Lowrey also released additional polling data on Alabama voters. According to polling, President Donald Trump's endorsement carries weight among voters. However, Lowrey claims that U.S. Sen. Katie Britt (R-Montgomery) holds virtually the same sway among would-be runoff voters, although he notes that she has made no endorsements in the runoff.
According to the poll, Trump's endorsement makes someone more likely to vote for a candidate 48.1% of the time and less likely to do so 18.1% of the time. Britt's endorsement, on the other hand, is 44.8% more likely to persuade, while 14.4% are less likely to follow Britt's lead.
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