We are over a year into Donald Trump’s shocking second term. We’ve seen impressive and beneficial federal action to ensure peace, seal the border, and make America healthier. While the first year has been far from perfect, and the administration has hit the occasional misstep or missed opportunity, in my view, it has been largely successful.
We will get our first real test of whether the American people agree with me in November as the 2026 midterms draw close. Republicans are currently underwater, but not out of line with historical data, while predictions of a “Blue Wave” are not yet substantiated by polling.
But looking further and examining the presidential map in just under three years, a few themes become clear.
Theme number one:JD Vance is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination
In poll after poll Vance holds a commanding lead over any potential GOP opponent. Already endorsed by outgoing Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk, he’s sure to rack up more key endorsements as the election approaches.
Vance is young and combative, blending a populist message with family charm. He has a classic American story, and his memoir is heart-wrenching reading thanks to a truly traumatic childhood. He’s captured the hearts of the Republican base, and it will take major forces to shake that. While some (including myself) may not adore his populist rhetoric or flirtations with isolationism, Vance is the clear leader for the nomination.
Theme number two:The Republican nominee will have to run on Trump’s term
Donald Trump has been the axis of American politics for a decade at this point. Ever since his 2015 ride down the escalator, he has come to define the Republican Party and the very age in which we live. He has ingrained himself in the cultural psyche and political being of the nation in a way few other presidents have. He is the object of both near worship and unthinkable hatred.
The GOP nominee will have to run on Trump’s record. That’s a certainty. Vance especially, will have to carry the record of the administration on his shoulders much like Kamala Harris carried Joe Biden’s. This is why it is essential for this administration to be successful.
In an age of executive orders, much of what Trump has accomplished can be removed with the stroke of a pen on Jan. 20, 2029. If Republicans do not hold on to government in 2028, then everything will be wiped away. We will be judged on the success of our governance, and we must ensure that we have a record worth running on, a record of which Americans approve.
Theme number three: The Democrats must have a governing framework.
Just as Trump has reshaped the Republican Party in his image, the Democrats have shifted their entire political agenda into being the party of “resistance.” This was true in Trump Term One and even true when they held power for four years. But it has become all-consuming since Trump’s second victory.
There is a concentrated effort, from state-level Democratic affiliates to congressional officials to stop, kneecap, or otherwise shut down the administration. Sure, that behavior isn’t remarkable for the opposition party, but the current Democratic Party has no vision for what they would actually do with power, just that they will take it away from the orange man. Perhaps there is no reason, and I’d be inclined to believe that many Democrats want power for its own sake, but to actually win back any offices, both in 2026 and 2028, they will have to articulate a framework for leadership. Trump is not so unpopular that they can run on resistance alone.
I don’t know what they will show as a template for governing, as census reports continue to show people fleeing blue states for red ones (including Alabama). What I do know is that they need to provide a compelling idea for actually running the country, or they’re setting themselves up for another blowout loss.
To conclude, we’re in for a fun three years, both in Alabama and in the nation at large. We have interesting and earnest candidates here in the Heart of Dixie and a fascinating political climate outside. I’m excited to see what Republicans can accomplish, and I truly hope that we can stick the landing in 2026, 2028 and beyond. The future of this country depends on it.
Henry Vaughan is longtime resident of Auburn, Ala. His chief interests are Alabama politics, religion, and foreign policy.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to [email protected].
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