Back in August, the Alabama Poll asked likely Republican primary voters a simple question: If President Trump endorsed a candidate, would that make you more or less likely to vote for them?
The answer seemed decisive. Fifty-nine percent said, "more likely." Only a small fraction said it would hurt. For a candidate seeking the GOP nomination in Alabama, a Trump endorsement looked like a golden ticket.
Six months later, the picture is more complicated.
Trump recently endorsed U.S. Rep. Barry Moore for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Tommy Tuberville. He also endorsed ALGOP Chairman John Wahl for lieutenant governor. Both endorsements were celebrated as game-changers.
But when we tested those endorsements with actual candidate names attached, something interesting happened. The 59% dropped to 43% for Moore and just 38% for Wahl. The endorsement lost between 16 and 21 points of its power when it became specific.
More striking: Attorney General Steve Marshall still leads Moore 26% to 17% in our latest polling, a position he has held consistently. Secretary of State Wes Allen leads Wahl 23% to 6%. The Trump-endorsed candidates are trailing – in some cases badly.
What's going on and what’s more important? Washington, D.C., or Alabama endorsement support?
The Britt Factor
Perhaps the most surprising finding in our February survey was this: A hypothetical endorsement from U.S. Sen. Katie Britt tests stronger than Trump's actual endorsements.
Forty-six percent of likely GOP primary voters say a Britt endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, compared to 43% for Trump's endorsement of Moore and 38% for his endorsement of Wahl.
But the real difference is in the negatives. Only 11% say a Britt endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate. For Trump's endorsements, that number is 15-16%.
In a competitive primary, that gap matters. It suggests that Alabama's own senator may carry more persuasive weight – and less baggage – than a Washington endorsement, even from a popular president.
Follow the Endorsements
This raises a broader question that's worth examining: In a Republican primary, whose endorsement actually moves voters?
Consider Moore's endorsement portfolio. Since launching his Senate campaign, he has secured backing from Trump, Vice President JD Vance, U.S. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana), U.S. Sen. Ted Budd (R-North Carolina), U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming), U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), and House Agriculture Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pennsylvania).
It's an impressive list of Washington heavyweights. But scan it again. Every single endorsement comes from outside Alabama.
Now consider what else has flowed into Moore's campaign: $5 million from Defend American Jobs, a super PAC affiliated with the crypto industry's Fairshake political operation. Funded primarily by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, the group has a $193 million war chest and has made Moore its first major investment of the 2026 cycle.
Add the Club for Growth – a Washington-based political operation that helped Moore defeat Jerry Carl in the 2024 primary while opposing Trump’s election repeatedly – and a pattern emerges. Moore's coalition is national: Washington politicians, Silicon Valley money, DC-based PACs.
What it isn't, at least so far, is Alabama-centered.
A Different Approach
Marshall has taken a markedly different path – setting up a scenario testing the efficacy of endorsements. His endorsement list reads like a tour of Alabama's 67 counties.
The Alabama Farmers Federation – whose endorsement helped propel Tuberville from the middle of the pack to a primary victory in 2020 – is backing Marshall. Fifty sheriffs and district attorneys from 33 counties have endorsed him. The Associated Builders and Contractors of Alabama signed on. His campaign has announced county chairmen in 47 of Alabama's 67 counties.
Not a single Washington politician appears on Marshall's endorsement list.
This isn't to say one approach is right and the other wrong. National endorsements bring media attention, fundraising networks, and credibility with ideological activists. Local endorsements bring grassroots organization, community credibility, and the implicit message that the candidate is accountable to the people who live here.
But it does raise a question voters may want to consider: When you look at who's vouching for each candidate, what does that tell you about who they'll answer to in Washington and whose priorities will they fight for? Support in politics isn’t given in a vacuum or blindly.
The Undecided Voter
The race is far from over. Forty-three percent of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided in the Senate contest.
Among those undecideds, Trump's endorsement of Moore has real pull – 49% say it makes them more likely to support him. But 27% say it makes no difference at all. That's roughly 60,000 voters in a typical GOP primary who are explicitly saying they'll decide based on something other than what Washington thinks.
Those voters will decide this race. And right now, the data suggests they trust Alabama voices as much as – or more than – Washington voices.
Meanwhile, Moore faces a geographic challenge. Marshall holds a +28 net favorability rating in the Birmingham, Huntsville and Montgomery media markets – which account for 74% of the likely primary electorate. Moore's net favorability in those same markets is just +8, and 37% of voters there have never heard of him.
Moore's strength is concentrated in Mobile and Dothan – his congressional district’s home turf – which represents just 21% of primary voters. To win, he'll need to use that $5 million in crypto money and the Trump endorsement to introduce himself to three-quarters of the electorate who don't yet know him and convince them to choose him over an attorney general they already know and largely like.
It's not impossible. But it's a heavy lift.
The Bigger Question
Alabama's 2026 Senate primary may end up answering a question with implications beyond this single race: In the Trump era, what matters more – a blessing from Washington or credibility at home?
Trump remains overwhelmingly popular with Alabama Republicans. His approval rating sits at 88% in our survey. But popularity doesn't automatically transfer. Voters can love Trump and still make their own judgments about individual candidates.
The August-to-February drop in endorsement effectiveness – from 59% to 43% – suggests that's exactly what's happening. When the endorsement is abstract, it's powerful. When it's attached to a real candidate with a real record and real opponents, voters apply their own filters.
If Moore wins this primary, it will validate the national strategy: stack Washington endorsements, flood the airwaves with outside money, and let Trump's popularity carry you across the finish line.
If Marshall wins, it will suggest something different: that Alabama Republicans, even in the Trump era, still want leaders who built their credibility here – not ones whose coalition was imported from somewhere else.
Either way, the answer will tell us something important about what endorsements actually mean in 2026.
Michael T. Lowry is the founder and principal of The Alabama Poll and the founder of Backstop Strategies, a Washington, D.C.-based government affairs firm. A native Alabamian, he has more than 30 years of experience in politics and government and most recently served as chief of staff to U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to [email protected].
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