Nearly a week before the June 16 Republican primary runoff election, a recent poll shows a tight lead for former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson in his run for U.S. Senate, while Secretary of State Wes Allen has a slight advantage in his race for lieutenant governor.
Hudson faces U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) for his seat, while Allen is up against the former Alabama Republican Party Chairman, John Wahl. Both Moore and Wahl have received hearty endorsements from President Donald Trump.
The poll, conducted by Strategy Management, surveyed 1,300 likely Republican voters, 99.77% of of whom voted in the May 19 primary, and 93.38% of whom said they are "very likely" to participate in the runoff.
The poll was taken between June 5 and June 7.
The polling shows a very close contest in the U.S. Senate race. Hudson leads overall 42.15% to 37.46%. However, among the core Republican base, the race is tied within the margin of error. Hudson leads among independents, moderates, and the Birmingham Designated Market Area (DMA), which pollsters claim offsets Moore's advantages with MAGA voters and seniors, a bloc that Moore leads significantly.
The poll showed a surprising number of undecided voters, who accounted for 20.38% of those polled.
Hudson leads among those 18-64. Moore only holds the 65+ age demographic. Hudson also leads in the Huntsville, Birmingham and Montgomery DMAs. Moore, on the other hand, has leads in the Montgomery, Mobile and Dothan areas.
Predictably, those who self-identified as MAGA Republicans heavily favor Moore, who has a 30-point lead among that demographic. Christian conservatives and Moderates favor Hudson.
Both Moore and Hudson had comparable favorability ratings (57.23% and 54.54%, respectively). However, Moore had a significantly higher proportion of those who viewed him unfavorably (24.84%) than Hudson (15.31%).
In the lieutenant governor's race, the margin is razor-thin. Allen does lead with 37.88%, with Wahl close behind at 36.98%.
"Though Wahl enjoys the endorsement of President Trump, he has been unable to capture what should be his base, given his time as State Party Chairman," the poll reads. "Allen remains competitive among the group of self-identified Republicans, who as previously stated in earlier analysis, are the portion of the electorate most likely to participate in the GOP Runoff. Allen also holds a dominant position with those who self-describe as Independents/Other."
Wahl leads among the 18-32 and 55-64 age brackets. Allen leads amongst those aged 35-55 and over 65.
Allen also leads in Birmingham, Montgomery and Huntsville BMAs, while Wahl leads in Dothan and Mobile.
Once again, the Trump endorsement gives Wahl the lion's share of the vote amongst self-described MAGA Republicans.
The poll concludes that Allen is the likely victor. However, a Wahl upset would require a "dramatic MAGA turnout surge," a late Christian conservative break for Wahl, and weakness in turnout in Montgomery and Birmingham.
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