The United States hit a record 13.6 million barrels of oil production per day in 2025, a number that's holding strong in 2026. The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum products, but most of our crude imports come from Canada, with the Arab World accounting for roughly 10% of total crude imports in recent years, according to the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).
By any traditional measure of supply, America's energy position is strong.
That strength did not happen by accident. President Donald Trump deserves credit for establishing policies that increased domestic energy production and reduced many regulatory barriers, including his January 2025 "Unleashing American Energy" order. Doing this helped position the United States as a global energy leader.
Yet if we are so energy dependent, why does the Arab World have so much power over what we pay at the pump here in the U.S.? Indeed, oil prices have surged as much as 40% in recent weeks, even though there has been no meaningful disruption to the U.S. supply system or its inventories. As the EIA reported, U.S. commercial crude inventories rose 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 13, increasing total inventories to 449.3 million barrels.
Economics has always taught us that prices are driven by supply and demand. But demand has not increased, nor has supply decreased. What we're facing is a pricing model problem called "futures market."
The price of oil isn't set by the barrels moving through American pipelines or ports, nor is it set by the oil company drilling and refining the oil. It's set in the commodities futures markets. Contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange abound, where traders, hedge funds, and speculators essentially bet on global headlines. Every rumor or escalation out of the Strait of Hormuz or the Arab world gets priced in instantly as a "war premium."
Those war premiums come at the expense of the American people, providing an instant 5-25% increase in the price of American oil and its refined products, gasoline, diesel, etc., without any exploration cost increase or any effects on supply and demand.
Futures markets serve a legitimate purpose, allowing airlines, refiners, drillers, and shippers to hedge risk. They're a tool to control costs and stabilize pricing, and they can and do benefit the American people more than they realize.
Yet oil is fungible and priced globally, and the speculators turn that into a weapon. They amplify volatility far beyond fundamentals, so the war premium flows straight out of our pocketbooks. Essentially, Americans get hammered because Wall Street gamblers and hedge funds are running the show, giving foreign hotspots leverage they don't deserve over the American people.
We've had enough. This isn't free-market capitalism; instead, it's a casino where the house always wins at the expense of truckers, farmers, manufacturers and families.
Congress has the tools to break us free by directing the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to impose strict position limits on non-commercial speculators during geopolitical crises or states of emergency. They should raise margin requirements on futures trades when volatility spikes. This will reduce their leverage and put a strain on their capital. They should close the loopholes that let index funds and banks flood the market with bets detached from physical supply. This is about stopping speculation from hijacking prices when real U.S. supply is strong, not killing speculation completely.
Real supply here at home is rock-solid thanks to Trump's policies. Real demand hasn't jumped. We are energy dominant in every barrel we produce. It's time Congress made sure the price at the pump reflects that dominance, not the panic trades of people who never drilled a well, refined a drop, or ran the logistics. It's time we take the power away from the Arab world.
Ric Mayers is an Alabama businessman and film producer based in Tuscaloosa. See his most recent film with James O'Keefe here.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to [email protected].
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