Class, let’s return to one of my recent lectures concerning foreign affairs in an uncertain world, particularly the theme of Machiavellian-principled thoughts and Trumpian Pax Americana.
The Middle East has always been a crucible of power, where the weak are devoured, the strong dictate terms, and the sword is the final word on disputed issues. Israel’s recent attacks on Iran, particularly its nuclear program, are not just tactical strikes but a true application of realpolitik that has reshaped the region’s balance of power.
With the Trump administration’s support, Israel has delivered a blow (that the West was too weak, too woke, and too scared to carry out), gelding Iran and its neutered proxies, exposing the Islamic Republic’s crumbling facade. This is not merely a military victory – it’s a geopolitical earthquake that could spark the end of Iran’s dated theocracy.
For decades, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have loomed like a dark cloud over the Middle East. The mullahs in Tehran, cloaked in revolutionary zeal, have pursued a nuclear arsenal not for defense but to project power, intimidate neighbors, and hold the world hostage. Their program was a ticking time bomb, inching closer to weaponization despite hollow promises of “peaceful” intent. Israel, its back against the wall, did what it had to do: precise, devastating strikes to cripple Iran’s nuclear facilities and kill many of its top military and science officials. This wasn’t reckless aggression – it was survival, executed with surgical precision and a Machiavellian seal of approval.
The message is clear: Israel will not tolerate an existential threat, and it has the will and means to act.
Remember what I said about threats and fear being an incredible motivator? Well, Israel was paying attention when it demonstrated the might of its military and the desire to use it for its benefit. Take notes, class, here is the equation: Preparation + Decisiveness > Weaker nations’ threats and demands.
The realpolitik of this moment is stark. Iran’s nuclear program wasn’t just a regional menace; it was the linchpin of its hegemonic aspirations. By dismantling it, Israel has severed the head of the snake. Tehran’s ability to project power has been gutted, and its international proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, PIJ, PLO, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis), once feared as extensions of its revolutionary might, are now shadows of their former selves … hollowed, gutted and battered.
The Trump administration’s unrelenting pressure campaign deserves credit. Through sanctions that choked Iran’s economy and a foreign policy that empowered allies like Israel, Trump’s team has systematically dismantled Iran’s network of influence.
Consider the Houthis in Yemen, once Iran’s scrappy foot soldiers disrupting global shipping. Under Trump’s watch, their missile and drone attacks have been met with overwhelming force, reducing their threat to a nuisance. In Lebanon, Hezbollah – Iran’s most potent proxy – is a shell of its former self. Starved of funds and weapons, its arsenal depleted by Israeli airstrikes and internal Lebanese discontent, Hezbollah is no longer the regional threat it once was. Even in Syria and Iraq Iran’s militias are faltering, caught between local resistance and a reinvigorated U.S.-backed coalition. Iran’s axis of resistance, once a fearsome network, is now a fractured relic, isolated and impotent, sending a warning to other bad actors including North Korea, Russia, and China.
This isolation exposes Iran’s core weakness: its regime is a dinosaur, a theocratic relic clinging to power through fear and repression. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime’s enforcers, are despised by millions of Iranians who yearn for freedom. The government-managed black markets used to fund their war machine robbing their citizens, but the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program have not only crippled its strategic ambitions, they’ve also laid bare the regime’s vulnerabilities. The people of Iran – young, educated, and increasingly defiant – are watching. The mullahs’ promises of glory have turned to ash, and the IRGC’s iron grip is slipping.
Now is the moment to fan the flames of discontent.
Regime change in Iran is no longer a distant hope – it is tangible, alluring prospect. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy has brought Iran’s economy to its knees, with inflation soaring and basic goods scarce. The people are restless, and the IRGC’s brutal crackdowns only fuel their anger. Israel’s strikes, by shattering the myth of Iran’s invincibility, have created a window of opportunity.
The West, led by a resolute United States, should seize it. Clandestine and covert support for dissidents should include weapons, training and intelligence support. Increase targeted sanctions on IRGC leaders, and a robust information campaign could ignite an uprising. The Iranian people don’t need foreign boots on the ground – they need the tools to include weapons and other military kit and hardware to topple their oppressors. There are established contacts with separatist and regional groups opposed to the theocracy in Iran.
Critics will cry foul, warning of escalation or chaos. But let’s be real: appeasing Iran has never worked. Decades of diplomacy only emboldened the mullahs. Iran’s regime thrives on weakness, exploiting hesitation to arm its proxies and advance its nuclear goals. Israel’s actions, backed by Trump’s clear-eyed resolve, have flipped the script. The region is safer when Iran is weak, and the world is better off when its nuclear ambitions are in ruins.
Iran, once a regional bully, is now isolated, exposed and teetering. Its proxies are crumbling, its economy is collapsing, and its people are restless. Israel’s strikes were not just a blow to Iran’s nuclear program – they were a declaration that the era of Tehran’s unchecked aggression is over. Further, it is clear that Iran's arsenal is quickly dwindling.
The Trump administration’s unapologetic support for Israel has set the stage for a historic shift. Now is the time to push forward, to support the Iranian people in their fight against the IRGC’s tyranny. The mullahs’ days are numbered. Let’s make sure they fall.
Machiavelli was right again and American interests are best served when realpolitik is applied. Class dismissed.
Troy Carico is a former infantry enlisted soldier (11B) and infantry officer with branch qualifications including counterintelligence (35E) and military intelligence (35D). He served with distinction in the U.S. Army for more than 22 years, and is highly decorated and service connected disabled. He also has prior service as a civilian intelligence officer for the Defense Intelligence Agency Great Skills Program and has served in numerous clandestine assignments throughout the world.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to [email protected].
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