Geomagnetic storms are difficult to predict, but two recent sun eruptions have produced two concurrent solar storms headed toward Earth.
While no danger to Earth is expected, heavenly fireworks—auroras (northern lights)—above the United States are probable.
The last time major solar storms occurred in January 2024, there were predictions of the Northern Lights above only the northern states. Instead, displays were also seen in Alabama, all the way to coastal Baldwin County.
The Alabama lights were not technically aurora borealis – Northern Lights – but a first cousin called "light pillars." They were seen from Alabama’s Tennessee Valley down to Fort Morgan on the coast of the Gulf of America. The astronomical experts missed the prediction of the Alabama lights and foresaw only northern states getting the light shows.
In brief:
— Two CMEs are now headed toward Earth.
— Impact is expected on April 15 and/or 16.
— A G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect.
— Auroras are expected as far south as New York and Idaho. Alabama is again not included in the forecast.
According to experts from Space.com :
…the Earth's magnetic field is about to get a one-two punch from the sun — and the result could be an impressive show of northern lights stretching into mid-latitudes.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a geomagnetic storm watch for April 16, as two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are expected to strike in close succession. These CMEs were launched by a rare double eruption of solar magnetic filaments on April 12 and April 13. According to NOAA and Spaceweather.com, the CMEs could lead to G2-class (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions, increasing the chances of visible auroras not just in Canada but also across the northern-tier U.S. states like New York and Idaho.
"These #solarstorms will likely travel slowly, but they are dense and thus could pack a decent punch!" Space Weather Physicist Tamitha Skov wrote in a post on X. "Still waiting for coronagraph data to inform model runs, but impact could be late April 15 or early April 16."
CMEs are massive clouds of charged solar particles that can rattle our planet's magnetic field. This interaction triggers geomagnetic storms — and, when strong enough, can spark impressive aurora displays beyond their usual high-latitude range.
According to NOAA's three-day space weather outlook, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase late on April 15 or early April 16, peaking during the day and tapering off afterward. Timing CME impacts can be tricky, so keep your aurora alerts turned on and stay flexible — these storms don't always stick to a strict schedule.
Predicting the exact time of arrival for the CMEs is incredibly difficult as space weather, like weather on Earth, is a fickle creature.
Keep in mind that even if a CME hits Earth, the effect on auroras depends on the magnetic field alignment within the CME. If the alignment allows it to connect with Earth's magnetosphere, it could result in spectacular northern lights displays. However, if Earth's magnetosphere "closes the door" on the CME, aurora chasers might be left disappointed.
Will Alabama’s version of the lights be unexpectedly included in the current geomagnetic storms, which have again not been mentioned in the forecasts? Will there be another unexpected “Aurora Bora Bama?”
Look outside on Tuesday and Wednesday nights to see.
"The heavens declare the glory of God, and the skies show His handiwork."
Jim' Zig' Zeigler writes about Alabama's people, places, events, groups and prominent deaths. He is a former Alabama Public Service Commissioner and State Auditor. You can reach him for comments at [email protected].
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