Auburn football, in the midst of a three-game losing streak, is searching for its first conference win of the season as it hosts No. 16 Missouri on Saturday.
Auburn leads the all-time series 3-2, with the last win over the visiting Tigers coming in 2022 as Auburn narrowly escaped with a 17-14 overtime win. Saturday’s matchup marks the fourth straight top 20 opponent for Auburn, which is just one of two teams in the SEC to begin conference play with four consecutive games against ranked opponents.
Led by sixth-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri is coming off its first loss of the season to then-No. 8 Alabama. Saturday will mark the first game away from home for Drinkwitz’s Tigers.
Here are the biggest things to look for in Saturday’s matchup:
Strength vs. Strength
The visiting Tigers boast one of the nation's most explosive offenses, primarily due to their ability to churn out yards on the ground.
Missouri owns a lethal rushing attack, averaging 270.5 ground yards per game, which ranks sixth nationally. Running back Ahmad Hardy is a big reason why.
Hardy ranks second in the country with 782 yards rushing. According to Pro Football Focus, Hardy has recorded 608 yards after contact, which leads the nation, and has forced the second-most missed tackles with 49.
Additionally, Missouri has recorded 52 explosive runs on the year, with Hardy ranking second nationally with 22.
However, Auburn is well-suited to defend the run as it has been a strong point of the orange and blue Tigers’ defense so far. Auburn ranks sixth in the nation in yards per carry allowed (2.56) and 11th in rush defense (86.5). Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin’s unit has held its opponents to under 100 yards rushing in four of Auburn’s six games this season. It is allowing its lowest permitted total through six games (519) since 1999.
Whichever squad finds a way to continue to excel in their strong suits will hold a significant advantage on Saturday night.
Arnold must make plays through the air
It’s no secret that Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold has struggled as a passer since the start of conference play.
On Saturday, Arnold must be able to connect with his talented crop of playmakers down the field because Missouri boasts one of the most disruptive front sevens in the country.
Missouri is currently allowing a stingy 72.8 yards per game on the ground - the second fewest in the country. It has limited its opponents to 31 yards or fewer on the ground in three games this season. Additionally, Missouri currently ranks ninth nationally in passing defense, allowing just 151.2 yards per game through the air, and is tallying 16 sacks per game.
And Auburn just lost a coveted running back this week in Damari Alston, ensuring the home Tigers' second option out of the backfield will be true freshman Omar Mabson II, making it all the more critical that Arnold evolves as a passer this week.
How does the Auburn run game look?
After Monday’s theatrics involving Alston and head coach Hugh Freeze, ultimately, Auburn’s 1-2 punch in the backfield is gone.
Now, Alston had only received 16 carries over the last three games, but he was still a senior running back with valuable experience in the SEC. Mabson has received nothing but high praise since his arrival this offseason, but his first real test will come against the second-best rushing defense in the nation.
Auburn did well enough against the Georgia front seven in the first half last week, and if the home Tigers can replicate that on Saturday, it will be a big boost.
Auburn’s offensive line must step up
Auburn’s offensive line has been porous, especially since the start of SEC play.
It gave up only one sack last week against Georgia, but the Bulldogs were not much of a pressure-generating defense.
Missouri owns what might be the best tandem of edge rushers that Auburn has seen this season in Damon Wilson II and Zion Young.
The two rank first and second in the league in pressures, respectively. Wilson ranks second in the SEC and 17th nationally among edge rushers with an 89.8 overall pass rush grade, per PFF, while Young ranks fourth in the SEC and 22nd nationally with a grade of 83.9.
The two have combined for 8.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss through six games.
Meanwhile, Auburn’s offensive line has allowed a nation-worst 22 sacks through six games. The home Tigers own a 62.5 PFF pass-blocking grade while Missouri boasts the fifth-best pressure grade (87) in college football.
If Auburn has trouble containing Missouri’s pressure off the edge, it could be in for a long night.
Kickoff is set for 6:45 p.m. on SECN.
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