Donald Trump’s presidency is off to a great start, but it could still be derailed.
The pride that follows a job well done has been the ruin of many great men, because “pride goeth before destruction” (Proverbs 16:18). But the threat I’m focusing on is the 2026 congressional election, which could break Republican control of Congress.
The Senate is likely safe. The Republicans’ 53-47 majority is likely to remain and perhaps increase if Republicans carry Michigan or Georgia. (As an aside, if I were president and could control only one house of Congress, I’d choose the Senate because of its power to confirm justices and to ratify treaties.)
But Republicans hold only a 219-212 majority in the House, with four vacant seats, so even a slight gain could give Democrats control.
The Cook Political Report gives Republicans an advantage. As of Aug. 23, 2025, it rates 193 seats solidly Republican, 12 likely Republican, and 10 leaning Republican, with only 172 seats solidly Democrat, 18 likely, and 12 leaning. That leaves 18 seats as “toss-ups.” If Republicans hold all seats rated solid, likely and leaning, they need only carry three of these 18 toss-up seats to retain control of the House.
But remember: The incumbent president’s party has lost House seats in 38 of the past 41 midterm elections. A change of only two seats could give Democrats control.
Why is that such a portent of disaster? Consider Trump’s first term. In the first half (2017-2019), Trump had some remarkable accomplishments, made possible by Republicans’ advantage in the House. His Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 brought unprecedented tax relief to millions of Americans, the stock market soared, and unemployment rates for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and women reached historic lows. He obtained the confirmation of two conservative U.S. Supreme Court Justices and many circuit and district court judges, laying the groundwork for overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. He also eventually renegotiated trade agreements in ways that helped American workers, replacing the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and also worked tirelessly on a Middle East peace agreement.
But the 2018 elections gave Democrats a House majority. Nancy Pelosi (D-Ca.) became Speaker, and although I’m no Pelosi fan, I give her credit for her uncanny ability to hold her party together and get virtually all Democrats to vote en bloc. With this power, Pelosi blocked Trump’s legislative initiatives for two years and subjected Trump to two impeachments. She couldn’t get her own radical agenda adopted because Republicans controlled the Senate, but she succeeded in crippling Trump’s presidency.
That’s why the 2026 congressional elections are vitally important. If Democrats gain the majority in the House, thus controlling leadership and committee chairmanships, they can paralyze Trump’s agenda for 2027-2029.
What should we do?
1) Vote. Even though I don’t like early voting, I suggest doing so, just in case you are sick on election day. I think America’s Framers contemplated a one-day election, with absentee voting for those in military service or for other special situations. But election laws in most states provide for it, and the Democrats use it. Until we can abolish it and return to one-day voting, vote early and use election day to campaign.
2) Work with True the Vote to ensure election integrity. I’m sure incidents of cheating occurred in the 2020 elections, but I’m much more concerned that laws and voting procedures were changed (often without proper constitutional authority) to give Democrats an unfair advantage. Things like allowing people to drop unverified ballots into unsecured dropboxes, allowing “vote harvesters” to solicit, collect and deliver absentee ballots, and allowing election boards to change laws without legislative or constitutional authority to do so, allowing illegal aliens to vote (all states restrict voting to citizens, but this is poorly enforced because in some states you can vote just by showing your driver’s license and you don’t need to be a citizen to get a driver’s license), all undermine the voting process. These questionable changes occurred in many states, and in some they were enough to swing the election.
3) Watch reapportionment. With House control so closely in the balance, every seat counts. That’s why Republicans are trying to reapportion Texas, why Democrats walked out of the legislature to prevent a quorum, and why they returned to the legislature only after Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Ca.) said he would spearhead an effort to reapportion already-malapportioned California.
Reapportionment is normally the responsibility of the legislature, but courts sometimes get involved. Alabama now has two Democratic congressmen because the federal courts said the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment requires that the state have two black-majority congressional districts. That means Alabama’s congressional districts are drawn expressly on a racial basis, by order of the federal courts. And yet, in Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina (2023), the Supreme Court ruled that race-conscious affirmative action policies violate the Equal Protection Clause.
Go figure: Federal courts are saying the 14th Amendment forbids consideration of race in college admission policies but requires that congressional districts be apportioned explicitly on race. That makes no sense at all. The Supreme Court needs to resolve this inconsistency, and the upcoming Louisiana v. Callais case gives them the opportunity to clearly rule, once and for all, that race may not be a factor either in college admissions or congressional redistricting. I hope Alabama will stand with Louisiana in this case.
Congressional control may hang in the balance with this case. The Constitution may hang in the balance as well.
Colonel Eidsmoe serves as Professor of Constitutional Law for the Oak Brook College of Law & Government Policy (obcl.edu), as Senior Counsel for the Foundation for Moral Law (morallaw.org), and as pastor of Woodland Presbyterian Church of Notasulga, Alabama (woodlandpca.org). He may be contacted for speaking engagements at [email protected].
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to [email protected].
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