President Trump is already on the campaign trail, in perhaps the earliest midterm effort in the history of presidential politics. The catalyst? Affordability, say the media and Democrats.
“The left-wing narrative of Trump hyperinflation was one of desperation and came only after previous memes had failed to resonate,” commentator Victor Davis Hanson recently wrote. “Then the Democrats got smart and remembered how Trump had won in 2024.” Hanson goes on to describe how shallow Democratic claims are by citing inflation numbers during Trump’s first term, how much they grew during Biden’s four years, and then what they were when Trump took office the second time. He writes:
Biden entered office with Trump’s national gas average of $2.39 a gallon and promptly doubled it to $5—until it settled down to a four-year average of $3.35-40 a gallon. That was roughly 35-40 cents higher than the present $3.00 Trump national average.
Biden’s four-year inflation had cumulatively hit 21.5% and it climbed much higher when staples like key foods, insurance, housing, energy, cars, etc., were tabulated separately.
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The affordability case was seemingly closed, given that the Democrats never had an answer for Biden’s misery indices and thus turned to the other smears mentioned above.
But then a funny thing happened.
Trump had entered office with a monthly inflation rate of 3%, but did not somehow immediately lower it. And the rate remains. After ten months of Trump’s tenure, it was still at the same 3%.
Yet suddenly, the left cried, “Affordability!”
Apparently, Trump was culpable because in months he had yet to undo all the damage Biden had inflicted over four years, despite the fact that Trump’s inflation was already 2.2 points less than the Biden four-year yearly average—and headed downward.
Although Hanson’s factual comments are compelling, they don’t quite capture the entire story. It isn’t only affordability causing uneasiness among the citizenry; rather, it is the broader economic situation in which we find ourselves. This was evident in the recent stock market decline, partially resulting from reports that continue showing a weak labor market.
My industry, hardwood lumber, isn’t faring any better either. The estimated annual production of U.S. hardwoods is down from about 470 million board feet a month in October to only 380 million in November, likely to drop more this month. Prices remain stagnant, lumber difficult to move. All this is to say that, Hanson’s article notwithstanding, the president’s problems aren’t merely those of messaging; rather, he faces true headwinds for the upcoming elections, that only compound those of a media and opposition party who sense that the red they see shimmering on the water’s surface might well be blood.
As usual, the media and Democrat view of the subject tells only part of the story. Despite their claims, much has been done economically in the first 10 months of Trump’s second tenure, and it has to do with tariffs. For it appears that the slowing of the current economy is nothing other than the decline of the old system – the pre-tariff one – before the new, post-tariff regime ramps up. I say this because there is no reasonable way to expect that such broad changes in trade as those instituted in recent months could occur without some manner of slowdown.
There is a silver lining, however. Trump’s claim of double-digit trillions in foreign investment set to begin next year is unprecedented, even if that number is inflated, as some media outlets claim. Even if the $21 trillion claimed most recently by the president falls short by 50% or even 75%, the number would still dwarf anything in this category that came before it. In other words, this phenomenon – driven mainly by Trump’s tariff plan – could create a 2026 economic boom.
These numbers are much easier to say than do, however, as the media points out. Therefore, action must be taken, not only to codify any of the $21 trillion of investment that might still be up in the air, but also to facilitate the kind of boots-on-the-earth, ground-breaking activity needed to ensure that these announcements become a reality. I’m thinking something like a task force is in order, à la the DOGE group of a few months back, with a charge to give updates through press conferences as ground is broken and windows and shutters hung.
Trump’s second term is on the line, and he knows it; hence the early campaigning. But he should do more than just campaign. The intervening months before next November’s elections should be spent in making the new investments a reality, for the president is walking a tariff tightrope, and this might be the only way to keep from falling off.
Along with his father, Allen Keller runs a lumber business in Stevenson, Alabama. He has a Ph.D. in Creative Writing from Florida State University and an MBA from University of Virginia. He can be reached for comment at [email protected].
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to [email protected].
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