Although it remains unknown how a three-judge panel will rule in federal court on Alabama's recently redrawn congressional lines, some interested parties are preparing for the 2024 election cycle.
Incumbent U.S. Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) appear to be preparing for any number of possibilities, including a possible head-to-head match-up in a potential Dauphin Island-to-Dothan congressional district.
If such a scenario were to come to fruition, at least one congressional district, which would likely include the city of Montgomery, would not have an incumbent.
The district, drawn at the direction of the special master appointed by the federal court, would likely be drawn to meet the criteria of a so-called opportunity district, meaning it would have to be a majority-black district or "something quite close to it."
Such a racial composition would not necessarily put the seat out of reach for Republicans to hold, considering the top of the ticket could include a presidential election between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden at a time when Trump enjoys unmatched popularity in Alabama.
Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed, who just won re-election for another four-year term, has not ruled out the possibility of seeking a congressional seat on the Democratic Party ticket. Should he run under that scenario, he would likely be the prohibitive favorite for his party's nod.
As for who would run on the Republican side, one possibility is former State Sen. Dick Brewbaker (R-Montgomery).
Brewbaker served two terms in the Alabama Senate from 2010 until 2018. Earlier this year, he sold his Montgomery-based car dealership.
During an interview with Mobile radio FM Talk 106.5's "The Jeff Poor Show," Brewbaker discussed a 2024 run, which he suggested was possible if no incumbent was in the race.
"I don't think they're going to draw both incumbents out," he said. "As far as just Dick Brewbaker is concerned, that would suit me down to the ground, obviously — because if I've got to run against Barry Moore, someone I've always supported and voted for, that always complicates things. But I would love to run in a district where there is no incumbent. We'll just see. We don't have to wait very long, and we will know. But I don't see anybody on the Democrat side that is going to challenge Mayor Reed if he decides to run, which means whoever the Republican is, whether it is me or somebody else, they're going to have to raise a lot more money because they'll have a contested primary, and then a very competitive general election. It will be a lot of fun."
Brewbaker also speculated about a match-up against fellow Montgomery native Steven Reed.
"If it is drawn competitively at all, I think a Republican has a good chance in that district," he added. "Now, if it is not drawn competitively — like it always is, at the end of the day depend on who can get the votes out. Now, in the last mayor's race, when you've only got 20% of the people voting, that shows a lot of disinterest about what's going on in your city. What you can say about the last mayor's race in Montgomery is that it didn't inspire anybody."
Jeff Poor is the editor in chief of 1819 News and host of "The Jeff Poor Show," heard Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-noon on Mobile's FM Talk 106.5. To connect or comment, email jeff.poor@1819News.com or follow him on Twitter @jeff_poor.
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