Caroleene Dobson, a Montgomery attorney with no political background, overcame the major obstacle facing any political newcomer — no-name ID — and worked her way from the bottom to secure a spot in the run-off and now the Republican nomination. She did this through a thorough combination of constantly traveling the district, an effective and well-produced advertising campaign, and the one item that every candidate must have to be successful — campaign finances.
Dobson hit the ground running for the run-off and did not hold back. Candidates are always hesitant when it comes to contrast advertising, and following the first congressional district race, many in the donor and political community were apprehensive about contrast advertising and its possible negative effects, thinking that voters may have become fatigued from it. This is something that creeps in every campaign cycle at some point and then is, in the end, proven to be wrong. Dobson’s race shows that quality contrast advertising following a heavy introduction and issues advertising campaigns can work very effectively.
Alabama is one of the most Trump-friendly states, and her opponent, Dick Brewbaker, had previously tweeted some unflattering things against the former president. Dobson utilizing that to her advantage was something that should have been known to the Brewbaker campaign before ever announcing to run for the seat. This was something that Brewbaker could never shake or had a great answer for.
While a bad news cycle can pass; your opponent hammering you with hundreds of thousands of dollars in paid advertising requires a response. Brewbaker did take a few minor jabs at Dobson in radio interviews and in a final TV ad, but he never fully committed to a full-on contrast ad.
This decision by Brewbaker could’ve been one of the key deciding factors in the run-off election. The race only had a 7% turnout, and as we saw in the HD10 race in Madison in March, low-turnout elections such as special elections or a run-off are mostly made up of what political consulates call "Hard-Republicans.” Therefore, you must play to your base.
Brewbaker started this race as the favorite, given his time as a conservative state senator and his ownership of car dealerships. The Brewbaker name is well-known in the River Region and the Wiregrass. That proved very effective six weeks ago in the primary election, when Brewbaker won Montgomery County and the Wiregrass, while Dobson only won her home county of Monroe.
However, for the run-off, it doesn’t appear that Brewbaker left Montgomery much and wrote off the I-65 Corridor and Mobile. The support garnered by traveling and those in-person events pay off if done in quantity, and Dobson showed that.
One only has to look back to 2018 to see Jeff Coleman’s run for Congress as a comparison. Coleman, like Brewbaker, had a lot of support due to the high name ID; in the case of Brewbaker, he has years of advertising in the area, whereas Coleman spent millions quickly to build up a tremendous amount of name ID.
The problem is, if the voters don’t truly know the candidate, you are standing in a glass house, and your opponent is holding the hammer. This is exactly what happened in Coleman’s race. As COVID hit and the election was pushed later in the year, now U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) had the opportunity to spend more money and travel the district to meet voters, securing his victory. In this race, Dobson spent every day on the road, going on to show you cannot disregard the amount of support gained by a handshake.
When looking at races that are, for most parts, even on spending and determining why one candidate won versus the other, the totality of the race and the actions of each campaign must be analyzed. In a competitive race, barring a major incident, no one thing will win or lose an election. It is a combination of items or lack of items.
In this race, Dobson checked the boxes needed: she kept the tires on her car warm, she put money in when needed and where it was needed, and she punched at the right moment. Brewbaker, although well-funded, missed opportunities to punch back and was seen as absent.
Moving on to the Democratic nominee, Shomari Figures, a political newcomer, was living in D.C. and working for U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland. He had previously worked in the Biden and Obama administrations and with Democratic congressional members.
His path to victory was simpler, one that all candidates wish they had — outspend everyone. While it is true that candidates cannot control what a Super PAC does, rarely does one come in to spend millions in a race where the candidate did not solicit their support.
In addition to the money he raised, he was supported by more than $2.9 million from a D.C.-based Super PAC called Protect Progress. The odd part about this PAC is that many of its donors are generally D.C. Republican donors. However, it was specifically more focused on donors with an interest in cryptocurrency. In the last week of the race alone, this PAC, according to FEC records, spent nearly $220,000 in support of Figures' campaign.
While Figures almost squeaked through the primary on March 5 without a run-off, he ended up with 43.5% to House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels' (D-Huntsville) 22.4%. Figures was able to rally up many of the key endorsements he needed from the Democrat side of the aisle, even among colleagues of Daniels in the state house. Additionally, he was able to secure long-time Democrat operative Joe Reed's endorsement, even after Reed had bashed Figures for his ties to Republican donors.
This sets up an interesting race for November between Republicans and Democrats. Dobson and Figures will go head to head in a race sure to draw national attention and national political interest groups such as the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee and many more.
Currently, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives have a slim majority, and they will be looking to expand that margin. This seat will be a key target for the NRCC to hold if they want to improve their margin in the House. On the opposite side of that spectrum, Democrats who will be looking to retake the House will be fighting with all they have to take this seat from Republicans. As 1819 News has previously reported, numerous political consultants have agreed that this race could see millions of dollars being spent by both sides.
With Donald Trump on the ballot in November, the Republicans will have a boost. According to recent polling, Democrats are not as enthusiastic about voting to re-elect President Joe Biden as Republicans are about electing Trump, which could end up being the deciding factor in this race.
The general election will be held on November 5, and whoever wins this congressional race could decide who controls the U.S. House.
To connect with the author of this story or to comment, email Bradley.cox@1819news.com or on Twitter @BradleyCoxAL
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