Welp, there goes another political drop-of-the-hat moment! Although some could see this one coming, it was nonetheless pivotal and shocking in an election that has owned the summer more than any other in recent memory. Many more of these plot twists, and we’ll all be too exhausted to even go vote!
On Friday, independent candidate for president Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (RFK) announced he would drop out of the race and endorse Donald Trump for the high office. The move is widely understood to substantially help Trump’s campaign. But I want to get past pure poll numbers and give you, the reader, some real reasoning as to why Trump stands to gain from RFK’s exit.
Let’s get the math out of the way first. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average pegs Kennedy right at 5% of the national popular vote in a five-way race including eternal candidate Jill Stein (Green Party) and Bolshevik professor Cornel West (independent). Where will that 5% go with RFK gone? Immediately after Biden’s disposal, RCP averages saw Kennedy’s numbers drop around two to three percentage points, while Kamala Harris’ presence elevated the numbers in blue by about 6%, meaning about a third of RFK fans shifted into the “D” category upon Harris’ coronation.
Now to the brass tacks. The underlying message of the data is that most prospective Kennedy voters still partially warm to the Democratic Party returned after checking out Harris. This group contained those primarily concerned with Biden’s resemblance of a nursing home fugitive, but who remained progressive to the core.
So, that 5% left in the Kennedy camp seemingly consists of those fed up with the party who unflinchingly expelled a descendant of Democrat royalty, as well as those averse to Trump’s revolution inside the GOP. The question is, who do you think these voters are going to throw their weight behind now?
One thing to remember is that Kennedy’s base is non-conventional to the extreme. Kennedy represents a very novel political attitude that rejects partisan binaries and generates very thorough theoretical solutions to topics like environmentalism, the “American diet” and health care. These are the free-thinking types and the policy wonks like your college buddies who railed on and on about the “Uni-party” and “Big Pharma.” Largely consisting of younger demographics, this group pays close attention to the issues and is socially liberal, but cannot be fooled by the mainstream narrative.
Another thing to remember is that in America, the Electoral College, not the popular vote, decides the ruler of the free world, meaning that the November outcome comes down to states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, not California or our great home state of Alabama. These “swing states” gain their name from the fact that they can swing towards Barack Obama in 2012 and then all the way to Donald Trump in a span of four years. One reason this happens is because people in those states focus less on politics and more on pocketbooks. Therefore, Kennedy’s estimated 5% in each of these swing states are going to move to a new candidate based on how that candidate will help or harm their lives.
Just yesterday, I passed a car with a “Kennedy ’24” sticker on the rear windshield, and a neighbor down the road here in rural Tuscaloosa has a “Kennedy for Alabama” yard sign out front. This is in Alabama, where either your family has voted red since Reagan, or blue since FDR; imagine how many more of these now-stranded Kennedy voters are in the swing states.
Considering these things, I think that remaining 5% goes almost completely to Trump. That only becomes more likely when you consider that RFK not only left but openly blasted the Democratic Party when giving his support to President Trump. Kennedy voters are also going to move to Trump largely because of the supposed cabinet position Kennedy will have in the Trump administration. They’d love to see Kennedy get the chance to have some real power and implement the policies on which he campaigned.
As I implied in my previous piece, Trump again gets a political gift from above. RFK’s announcement on Friday not only stifles any momentum Harris had coming off the DNC convention, but it also throws the momentum back toward Trump, something he lost in recent weeks. My previous points still apply, just more urgently. If Republicans want to win, then my advice to them is don’t mess this up. Return to discipline and calculated punches – especially considering Trump just gained another attack dog in Kennedy – and not only will Trump gain the plethora of RFK’s vote share, but he’ll keep rolling to victory in November.
Carter Ashcraft is a 21-year-old from Tuscaloosa, Ala., who is majoring in political science at the University of Alabama. You can contact him at carterashcraft12@gmail.com.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to Commentary@1819News.com.
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