As I write this column early Tuesday morning, the results of the 2024 presidential election are uncertain. By the time you read it Wednesday morning, the question may be answered, but maybe not.
So should I write a column rejoicing in victory, or mourning in defeat? Perhaps I can best offer some words of wisdom that apply in either event: A battle has been won/lost, but the war goes on.
I’m thinking back to 1984. President Ronald Reagan was re-elected in a landslide with 59% of the vote; his opponent Walter Mondale carried only his home state of Minnesota. But Mondale gave some sage advice to his well-wishers. He told them to keep fighting, because “in the seeds of almost every victory are to be found the seeds of defeat, and in every defeat are to be found the seeds of victory.” I certainly didn’t vote for Mondale, but his words carry me back to my youth.
I remember the Goldwater campaign of 1964. I was 19 at the time, a leader in the College Republicans, and I worked my heart out to elect Barry Goldwater president, thinking he was the conservative stalwart who could save America. But he suffered a crushing defeat, carrying only six states. Lyndon Johnson won the election with 61% of the vote, and pundits said the Republican Party was dead.
But reports of the death of the GOP were greatly exaggerated, because in that defeat were the seeds of victory. The Republican Party realigned itself as the party of conservatism with its stronghold in the Midwest and West. And perhaps even more importantly, the Republican Party broke into the once-solid Democratic South. Two years later, Republicans made gains in 1966. In 1968, Richard Nixon, a moderate and pragmatic conservative, was elected in a squeaker election and re-elected in 1972 with 49 states and 60.7% of the popular vote. And the pundits said the Democratic Party was dead.
But in that victory were the seeds of defeat: Watergate. As the Watergate scandal dominated the news, Nixon fell into disfavor, and in 1974, he resigned in disgrace. Jimmy Carter was elected in 1976, and the pundits said the Republican Party was dead.
But in Carter’s victory were the seeds of defeat. If Carter had a vision for America at all, he couldn’t articulate it to the American people. Because of perceived incompetence, double-digit inflation, and high interest rates, as well as a foreign policy debacle in Iran, Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Reagan articulated a clear conservative vision for America with which people could resonate. He showed people they could believe in America, challenged Gorbachev to “tear down this wall,” and won re-election in a landslide. And yes, you guessed it: The media said the Democratic Party was dead.
But the pendulum continues to swing, although not by landslides. Despite his initial widespread approval because of his decisive action against Saddam Hussein, Republican George H. W. Bush lost to Democrat Bill Clinton (“It’s the economy, stupid!”), who served two terms despite being crippled by personal scandals. Republican George W. Bush was then elected to two terms, each by razor-thin margins, followed by Democrat Barack Obama, then Republican Donald Trump in 2016. And conservative Christians basked in victory, thinking they had routed the left forever.
But once again, we saw the seeds of defeat. Trump’s accomplishments were amazing, especially his conservative nominations for the Supreme Court and the rest of the federal judiciary. And 50 years from now, historians may regard his creation of the Space Force as his greatest accomplishment. But his personal style triggered much opposition, and the Democrats narrowly took the House in 2018. Speaker Pelosi effectively used her razor-thin majority to twice impeach Trump, although the Senate twice acquitted him. Thus crippled, Trump lost (officially, at least) to Joe Biden in 2020.
Regardless of who wins the presidency this time — and I’m cautiously optimistic — conservative Christians will have both seeds of victory and seeds of defeat. If Trump is elected, we will risk becoming apathetic and overconfident, thinking we have saved the country once and for all. That will be a seed of defeat because the left will not give up. They will immediately plan and work to paralyze Trump’s presidency, especially if they control either the House or Senate, and will lay the groundwork for a return to power in 2028.
And if Kamala Harris wins, some conservative Christians will be struck with hopelessness – the country has been lost, so we may as well give up. Please remember, that’s exactly the way the left wants you to feel!
In either event, we live in a sharply divided America. Unlike 1861, the divide is more cultural than geographical. Across the country, the cities lean left while the small towns and rural areas lean right. The two Americans listen (if at all) to different news sources and too often refuse to associate with those who think differently. Because ultimately we don’t think objectively; we emote subjectively. The ability to think objectively, to reach logical conclusions, and to act in accordance with those conclusions, is largely missing today. As my wife Marlene says, the problem with conservative Christians is that they assume people will think and do the right thing if we just give them the facts and make logical arguments. But for too many, facts and logic don’t matter.
We need to develop a distinctive conservative ideology that reflects the values held by the framers. Directly or indirectly, they derived their ideology from the Bible, and that ideology included a high view of God and His law, and a low view of man and his nature. Knowing that man is sinful, they knew government is necessary to preserve law and order. Knowing that rulers are just as sinful as the rest of us, they knew government power must be carefully limited. And they wrote that ideology into the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. We need to develop the ability to think first biblically and then constitutionally.
If we can develop this conservative Christian political ideology, that will be a seed of victory.
And for Republicans, one more seed of victory is the realignment of their party. This began in the days of Ronald Reagan. In 1980, I was attending seminary and practicing law in Fergus Falls, Minn. As the Republican nomination narrowed to a race between Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush, I noticed that my law partners, my doctor, my dentist, and my banker generally supported Bush. But my auto mechanic, my milkman, our home repairman, and the policeman next door supported Reagan. Reagan had a special ability to make his conservative message resonate with blue-collar people.
Trump has furthered that trend. The Republican Party today is no longer the party of the rich. Big business is largely run by guilt-ridden, Ivy League-educated liberals and is so tied to government regulation and subsidies that it no longer reflects free enterprise. Big businessmen, therefore, have drifted from the Republican Party, and Trump doesn’t really appeal to them.
But Trump does appeal to another base. The working-class person who may belong to a union but loves his country, is maybe a veteran, works an extra job so he can provide housing and education for his family, goes to church, and worries that his children are being brainwashed with harmful and alien ideas, is rapidly becoming disillusioned with liberalism and the Democratic Party. And Trump is bringing these people into a new coalition of working-class people (regardless of race or sex), cultural Christians, social conservatives, and small businesspersons. This emerging conservative coalition is forming a new majority that will be a much better base for the Republican Party. This is indeed a seed of victory!
Colonel Eidsmoe serves as Professor of Constitutional Law for the Oak Brook College of Law & Government Policy (obcl.edu) and as Senior Counsel for the Foundation for Moral Law (morallaw.org). He may be contacted for speaking engagements at eidsmoeja@juno.com.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of 1819 News. To comment, please send an email with your name and contact information to Commentary@1819news.com.
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