The 2026 Alabama Republican primary runoff is in the books, as voters decided on Tuesday who they wanted as the GOP nominee in the November general election.
Except for a handful of district-specific races on the ballot, all eyes were on the statewide seats. The statewide offices saw the victory of U.S. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) over Jared Hudson 56% to 44% for U.S. Senate, Katherine Robertson defeating Jay Mitchell 55% to 45% for attorney general, John Wahl defeating Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen 57% to 43% for lieutenant governor and Corey Hill defeating Christina Woerner McInnis 53% to 47% for agriculture commissioner.
This cycle proved to be one of the more contentious in recent memory, with various campaigns at each other's throats with accusations and innuendo.
A significant amount of tension arose in the polling numbers that appeared throughout the state. Campaigns sometimes react harshly when their candidate does not perform well in a poll, leading them to question the poll's validity and veracity nearly every time.
The polls do seem to come out of nowhere, and oftentimes the pollster's motivations, if any, are unknown. Now that the race is over, a review of poll accuracy can help citizens distinguish between polls based on raw data and those that may have been biased.
Senate
Perhaps the race with the most widely varying results was the U.S. Senate race.
According to a survey of 722 "likely" Republican primary runoff voters conducted on behalf of the pro-Hudson Alabama Conservatives PAC by Remington Research Group on May 21-22, Hudson led with 41% of the vote compared to Moore's 40%.
Likewise, the Alabama Poll, which was conducted on May 28, predicted Hudson as the winner over Moore, 48.7% to 39.2%, with 12.1% undecided.
Another poll showing Hudson in the lead was conducted by Strategy Management. The poll surveyed 1,300 likely Republicans, showing Hudson with a 42.15% to 37.46% lead over Moore.
Several polls showed Moore leading, often by significant margins.
According to a poll commissioned by Club for Growth Action, the political action committee of Washington, D.C.-based Club for Growth, and conducted on May 17-18 by Pulse Decision Science, Moore was leading by 17 points, with 53% selecting him as their preferred candidate. Hudson, on the other hand, only secured 36%. Of those polled, 11% were undecided.
Polling from Coefficient, a political data and analytics firm, tallied 600 likely Republican runoff election voters on June 3-4. That poll showed a seven-point lead for Moore, with 46% preferring him, 37% preferring Hudson, and 17% still undecided.
Lieutenant Governor
According to the Alabama Poll, Allen led Wahl 41.9% to 38.4%, with an undisclosed number of undecided.
For lieutenant governor, the Strategy Management poll showed Allen leading with 37.88% of the vote, with Wahl close behind at 36.98%.
Attorney General
For attorney general, the Alabama Poll listed Robertson leading Mitchell 49.1% to 31.2% — a nearly 18-point margin.
Agriculture Commissioner
The Alabama Poll was one of the few to tally the agriculture commissioner race. The poll showed Hill leading McInnis 33.1% to 27.3%. The poll did show 39.6% still firmly undecided.
The Alabama Poll proved most unreliable, calling two of the most consequential races incorrectly by a significant margin, especially in the Senate, where Hudson was up by nearly 10 points in the poll. Even the pro-Hudson Alabama Conservatives PAC-commissioned poll only had Hudson up by one point. The two polls that showed Moore winning both missed the spread by five points. The poll commissioned by Club for Growth Action, a pro-Moore organization, showed Moore leading by 17 points, while polling from Coefficient showed Moore with a seven-point lead.
The Strategy Management poll likewise missed the mark in the Senate and lieutenant governor races, albeit at significantly lower margins than the Alabama Poll.
Before the May 19 primary, several other polls made less-than-accurate forecasts.
An American Pulse poll showed Allen leading Wahl 16% to 9%, despite Wahl claiming the majority of the vote in both the primary and runoff.
Another poll from Quantus Insights in October 2025 showed Hudson leading the primary at 27%. The poll showed Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, who was knocked out in the primary, came in just behind at 24%. Moore lagged in third place at 9%.
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